Forecasts, reviews, market analysis

[Irina_fx]

New information. Have Published the communique OPEC. And turned out to be that they have lowered quots. Question now will keep the decision it's. Positive for growing of the oils, gold, CAD and AUD forecast on correction AUD/USD - 0,8250 , oil on 106,5 107,5 Golds on 790 800, but will afterwards is seen have begun real to adhere a decision on quota.
Today already left the statistics on England internal gross product - a fall on 0,2, either as expected. Beside EURO purpose of the fall is obviously seen 1,3370 - 1,3850 falls GBP seen before 1,7270 - 1,7040 Go bankrupt the pair of the banks in staff and begin correction GBP on 1,93 EURO on 1,5280. We Advise to look ranges of time H4 and H1 graph of the program Metа Trader.

[Irina_fx]

Some experts throughout last month repeatedly turn attention to irrational behaviour of the world prices for oil which in the absence of demand have started to grow roughly, and inadequate to development of real sector of economy growth of the share markets where quotations come back to max of last year. However growth proceeds. Even one of the cheapest in the world - Russian oil of mark Urals has reached the maximum point this year $68 for barrel. Today the Russian stock exchanges again actively grow.
Analysts notice, that such development of a situation was the most probable, as "too the market is irrational and emotional to pay attention to any preventions".
By their estimation, the reason of such inadequate growth is covered in dynamics of the American dollar which has updated annual min against a euro. Analysts think, that it it is no wonder as the plan of the USA on rescue of the economy which assumes huge injection of means in financial tools is realised.
"Smoking from strain a press and promptly increasing size of a sovereign debt of the USA and it does not do honour to world reserve currency (but thus auctions on sale of new debts pass on hurrah). Rational investors hasten to sell dollars ("to sell"it is figurative, of course) and to enclose efforts in any financial actives (here will carry all exchange instrument). Why in the financial? Yes because in case of any act of nature from them it will be easier to get rid", - experts mark. "
However, it is necessary to notice, that the current situation even on day schedules is entirely speculative and not adhered to a fundamental background just as in December on 1.47 it is impossible to explain short-term growth of euro any data leaving during this period. Euro growth (and also the share markets, and the prices for oil) has already typed such rates what to stop (to break the bull technical picture, selling actives) will be the expensive. Easier on the contrary to extend all it it is excessive upwards, having finished a situation to full absurdity then to fall also excessively strongly downwards.

[Cozy101]

USD

The dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday, snapping a two day rally which was spurred on by thoughts of whether or not the US will be able to raise interest rates by the end of the year.

The decline came after the U.S. Treasury released a statement approving 10 of the country's biggest banks requests to repay the 68 billion dollars in government funds. Those funds were received as part of the Toxic Asset Relief Program (TARP) during the height of the financial crisis, several months ago. This move raised hopes that the worst could be over.

Nevertheless, investors and traders were growing sceptical that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by the end of 2009, after the Wall Street Journal published an article questioning the practicality of the Obama Government’s projected numbers.

At 10:00 PM GMT, the Dollar was trading down .95% to the Yen to 97.54, down 1.6% to the British Pound to 1.6309, down 1.4% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.0999, down 1.7% to the Australian Dollar to .8025, down 1.05% to the Kiwi to .6275 and down 1.35% to the Swiss Franc to 1.0768.

EUR

The euro traded sideways most of the session on Tuesday, after a data release showed a marked decline in German industrial output. The data suggested that the Germany, the largest economy in Europe, is still facing weak global demand for its goods.

There was a bright spot though for the Euro, after European Central Bank officials said that Latvia, which is one of the most troubled economies in Eastern Europe, may avoid devaluing its currency. There has been speculation for several weeks that Latvia might move to purposefully inflate their currency, in order to lower the real cost of their debt.

At 10:20 PM GMT, the Euro was trading up .17% to the Japanese Yen to 137.13, down .51% to the British Pound to .8613 after stronger than expected housing data came out of London, boosting the GBP, down .13% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.5489, down .47% to the Australian Dollar to 1.7527 and up .3% to the Swiss Franc to 1.5172.

[Cozy101]

Japanese GDP propels the Yen as stocks drop across the world

JPY

The Japanese Yen rallied across the board on Monday, after GDP data out of Japan showed the country’s economy grew, albeit slightly, for the first time in five quarters.

The Gross Domestic Product reading showed a .9% increase in the April to June quarter, and coincided with a massive sell off in Asian stock markets. Sentiment on the street was that the rise in the Yen on Monday had less to do with the positive data and more to do with the flow of money back into the safe havens, as investors bought it as a safe haven.

At 11:00PM GMT, the Japanese Yen was up .5% versus the US Dollar to 94.44, up 1.36% to the Euro to 133.01, up 1.9% to the British Pound to 154.32, up 1.95% to the Australian Dollar to 77.61, up 1.09% to the Canadian Dollar to 85.31 and up .93% to the Swiss Franc to 87.6

USD

Data out of the US showed that Chinese divested their Treasury holdings by the largest margin in over nine years. Holding close to 3 Trillion Dollars in US debt issues, China is the largest single owner of US debt and any rapid and significant sale of this debt could serve to destabilize the Dollar.

Overall, June saw 90.7 Billion Dollars worth of inflows into US securities, of which the US Federal Reserve bought nearly 23 Billion Dollars. Despite this information, the US Dollar rose broadly on the Forex online market yesterday spurred on by continued risk aversion.

At 11:30PM GMT, the US Dollar was up .9% to the Euro to 1.4075, up 1.25% to the British Pound to 1.6341, up .9% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.1074, up 1.35% to the Australian Dollar to .8214 and up .6% to the Swiss Franc to 1.0781.