EUR\CHF review

[MDunleavy]

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
EUR/CHF dropped further to as low as 1.4557 last week and met mentioned 1.4577 key support level. However, the cross the rebounded strongly on SNB intervention and before settling at 1.4667. Initial bias remains neutral this week and we'd expect some more sideway consolidations in near term. The range of the consolidation is not defined yet and another rise to above 1.4820 cannot be ruled out. But we'd expect strong resistance ahead of 1.5 psychological level to limit any rebound attempt.
In the bigger picture, with EUR/CHF still staying well below 55 weeks EMA, fall from 1.5880 is likely still in progress. The test of 1.4577 key support is already done but near term downside should be limited on risk of further intervention from SNB. We'd expect some choppy sideway consolidations below 1.5 psychological level first before down trend finally resume for a test of 1.4315 low. Sustained trading above 1.5 psychological level is needed to invalidate this bearish view.
In the long term picture, the corrective three wave structure of the rise from 1.4391 to 1.6827 is arguing that fall from 1.6827 is resumption of long term down trend from 1.8234. EUR/CHF's failure to take out 55 weeks EMA suggests that whole fall from 1.6827 is still in progress. Sustained break of 1.4577 support will affirm this case and bring another low below 1.4315 to resume the long term down trend.[Written by ActionForex.com]

"P&F EURCHF1440 Box Size 80X4 or(2.05%) CLOSE
Data 1.6796 - 1.4418 ~ 92 Month ~ 2809 Day
Database 2000 records 1.4661 (Last Close)
2002-06-03 00~00
2010-02-10 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group (http://iticsoftware.com) chart"

1.6800|~8O|||________________________________________|-0.02%|16.52%
1.6720|~16O||________________X_______________________|0.45%|15.97%
1.6640|~24O||______________X_XoX_____________________|0.93%|15.41%
1.6560|~32O||______________XoXoXo____________________|1.41%|14.86%
1.6480|~4OO||______________XoXoXo____________________|1.88%|14.3%
1.6400|~48O||______________XoXoXo____________________|2.36%|13.75%
1.6320|~56O||______________XoXoXoX_X_________________|2.83%|13.19%
1.6240|~64O||____________X_Xo_o_oXoXo________________|3.31%|12.64%
1.6160|~72O||____________XoX____oXoXo________________|3.79%|12.08%
1.6080|~8OO||____________XoX____oXoXo________________|4.26%|11.53%
1.6000|~88O||____________XoX____oXo_o________________|4.74%|10.97%
1.5920|~96O||____________Xo_____oX__o________________|5.22%|10.42%
1.5840|~1O4O|____________X______oX__o____X___________|5.69%|9.86%
1.5760|~112O|____X_____X_X______oX__o____Xo__________|6.17%|9.31%
1.5680|~12OO|__X_Xo____XoX______oX__o____Xo__________|6.64%|8.75%
1.5600|~128O|__XoXo__X_XoX______oX__o____Xo__________|7.12%|8.2%
1.5520|~136O|__XoXoX_XoXoX______oX__o____Xo__________|7.6%|7.64%
1.5440|~144O|__XoXoXoXoXo_______o___o__X_Xo__________|8.07%|7.09%
1.5360|~152O|__Xo_oXoXoX____________o__XoXo______X___|8.55%|6.53%
1.5280|~16OO|__X__oXoXo_____________o__XoXo______XoX_|9.03%|5.98%
1.5200|~168O|__X__oXoX______________o__XoXo______XoXo|9.5%|5.42%
1.5120|~176O|__X__oXoX______________o__Xo_oX_X_X_XoXo|9.98%|4.87%
1.5040|~184O|__X__o_o_______________oX_X__oXoXoXoXoXo|10.45%|4.31%
1.4960|~192O|__X____________________oXoX__oXoXoXoXo_o|10.93%|3.76%
1.4880|~2OOO|__X____________________oXoX__oXoXoXoX__o|11.41%|3.2%
1.4800|~2O8O|__X____________________oXoX__oXoXo_oX__o|11.88%|2.65%
1.4720|~216O|X_X____________________oXo___o_oX__oX__o|12.36%|2.09%
1.4640|~224O|_oX____________________oX______o___oX__o|12.84%|1.54%
1.4560|~232O|_oX____________________oX__________o____|13.31%|0.98%
1.4480|~24OO|_oX____________________oX_______________|13.79%|0.43%
1.4400|~248O|_o_____________________o________________|14.27%|-0.12%
Column|~256O|1414596674641495665114428494915664471548|
Count||||||||__6_________O______51__4_____4______O___|


http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Aug-03/BJF-Trading-Group-EURCHF0210_%281%29.PNG (http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Aug-03/BJF-Trading-Group-EURCHF0210.PNG)

http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Aug-03/bjf-trading-group-eurchf0210_%281%29.gif (http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Aug-03/bjf-trading-group-eurchf0210.gif)

BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart (http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Aug-03/BJF-Trading-Group-EURCHF0210.xls)

[MDunleavy]

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
Despite dipping to 1.4294 briefly, there was no follow through selling and EUR/CHF recovered back into familiar range. Outlook is turned neutral again and more choppy sideway trading might be seen. On the downside, break of 1.4294 will argue that rebound from 1.4143 is completed at 1.4465 already and turn bias to the downside for this support first. On the upside, above 1.4386 will suggest that stronger recovery might be seen. But after all, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 1.4557 support turned resistance to limit upside and bring fall resumption sooner or later.

"P&F EURCHF1440 Box Size 100X3 or(1.94%) HI/LO
Data 1.6827 - 1.4144 ~ 92 Month ~ 2811 Day
Database 2000 records 1.43556 (Last Close)
2002-08-16 00~00
2010-04-27 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group (http://iticsoftware.com) chart"

1.6800|~1OO||____________X_________________________|0.16%|18.78%
1.6700|~2OO||____________XoX_______________________|0.75%|18.07%
1.6600|~3OO||__________X_XoXo______________________|1.35%|17.36%
1.6500|~4OO||__________XoXoXo______________________|1.94%|16.66%
1.6400|~5OO||__________XoXoXo______________________|2.54%|15.95%
1.6300|~6OO||__________XoXo_o__X_X_________________|3.13%|15.24%
1.6200|~7OO||__________Xo___oX_XoXo________________|3.73%|14.54%
1.6100|~8OO||__________X____oXoXoXo________________|4.32%|13.83%
1.6000|~9OO||__________X____oXoXo_o________________|4.91%|13.12%
1.5900|~1OOO|__________X____o_oX__o________________|5.51%|12.42%
1.5800|~11OO|X_X_____X_X______oX__o________X_______|6.1%|11.71%
1.5700|~12OO|XoXo____XoX______oX__o________Xo______|6.7%|11%
1.5600|~13OO|XoXo__X_XoX______oX__o________Xo______|7.29%|10.29%
1.5500|~14OO|Xo_oX_XoXo_______oX__oX_____X_Xo______|7.89%|9.59%
1.5400|~15OO|X__oXoXoX________o___oXo____XoXo____X_|8.48%|8.88%
1.5300|~16OO|X__oXoXo_____________oXo____XoXo____Xo|9.07%|8.17%
1.5200|~17OO|X__oXoX______________oXo____Xo_o____Xo|9.67%|7.47%
1.5100|~18OO|X__o_o_______________o_o__X_X__oX_X_Xo|10.26%|6.76%
1.5000|~19OO|X______________________o__XoX__oXoXoXo|10.86%|6.05%
1.4900|~2OOO|X______________________oX_XoX__oXoXoXo|11.45%|5.35%
1.4800|~21OO|X______________________oXoXo___o_oXoXo|12.05%|4.64%
1.4700|~22OO|X______________________oXoX______o_oXo|12.64%|3.93%
1.4600|~23OO|X______________________oXo_________o_o|13.23%|3.22%
1.4500|~24OO|_______________________oX____________o|13.83%|2.52%
1.4400|~25OO|_______________________o_____________o|14.42%|1.81%
1.4300|~26OO|_____________________________________o|15.02%|1.1%
1.4200|~27OO|_____________________________________o|15.61%|0.4%
1.4100|~28OO|______________________________________|16.21%|-0.31%
Column|||||||13374453531465483893314153537361344581|
Count||||||||3_________1__________2_1_______O_____2|


http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Jun-19/BJF-Trading-Group-EurChf_0427_%281%29.PNG (http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Jun-19/BJF-Trading-Group-EurChf_0427.PNG) http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Jun-19/bjf-trading-group-eurchf_0427-2_%281%29.gif (http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Jun-19/bjf-trading-group-eurchf_0427-2.gif)

BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart (http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Jun-19/BJF-Trading-Group-EurChf_0427.xls)